With more than 1.5 million employees and a market cap of over $1.82 trillion, Amazon is the 6th largest company in the world. If the company continues to expand its diversified portfolio of products and services, it seems very likely that Amazon stock could fare very well in the future.
But how much higher can AMZN go exactly? With its push in the cloud computing space in full swing and a strong foothold in the online e-commerce space, many investors are wondering how much room for growth there is for Amazon.
In this article, we’ll look into various growth scenarios for the e-commerce giant and outline Amazon stock forecasts for 2040 and 2050. But first, here’s a quick look at how Amazon's stock price could fare under different scenarios.
Amazon price prediction key takeaways:
- We've analyzed threedifferent growth scenarios presented, each with its own yearly growth rate: 5% annual growth, historical S&P 500 ROI (11.1%), and historical QTEC ROI (17.1%).
- The historical average return for Amazon since 2013 is approximately 26%, but projecting this growth forward would result in an unrealistic stock price of $8,363 and a market cap exceeding $93 trillion by 2040.
- A more realistic projection, based on the historical yearly average of the S&P 500, suggests a price of $1,052 by 2040 and $3,023 by 2050 (which would be a +1,627% increase compared to current rates).
- IfQTEC's pastgrowth is applied to Amazon, the stock price will increase to $1,940 in 2040 and $7,985 by 2050, which is virtually impossible.
- In the shorter term, Amazon's stock price could reach a new ATH above $260 in January2025.
| 2025 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN stock forecast (5% yearly growth) | $184 | $246 | $401 | $653 |
| AMZN stock forecast (10% yearly growth) | $193 | $341 | $885 | $2,294 |
| AMZN stock forecast (S&P 500 historical 11.13% ROI) | $194 | $366 | $1,052 | $3,023 |
| AMZN stock forecast (QTEC historical 17.1% ROI) | $202 | $471 | $1,940 | $7,985 |
*Based on AMZN stock price of 175.20 as of March 20, 2024.
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Amazon stock forecast for 2040
Amazon stock’s average yearly return over the past 11years has been roughly 26%. Between 2013 and now, AMZN’s price has increased from $13.3 to about $175per share.
If we were to project its historical price performance onto future price movements using our profit calculator, the price of Amazon would increase to $8,363 by 2040. In other words, the price of Amazon would increase by 4,825%, while the company’s market capitalization would grow to over $93 trillion – and catapult Jeff Bezos among the world’s first multi-trillionaires in the meantime.
We can quickly deduce that such price growth is outside of the realm of possibility, as currently, the largest company by market cap, Microsoft, has a market cap of roughly $3.1 trillion.
What this means is that Amazon cannot be expected to follow the extremely bullish price growth from its past. Instead, we should look at some other market data that has withstood the test of time and offers a blend of conservative returns and sustainable growth for our Amazon stock price prediction.
For this reason, we decided to use the historical yearly average of the S&P 500 Index, which has appreciated at an 11.13% yearly rate over the last 50 years.
Based on these parameters, we get a much more realistic-looking long-term forecast for the price of Amazon stock – the price of AMZN would increase to $1,052 by 2040, gaining +501%.
While the S&P 500 does provide a useful measure of what can be expected of a large-cap company over a long period of time, it doesn’t necessarily account for the tech sector’s unique investment characteristics. Given Amazon’s push in digital streaming and artificial intelligence, the tech-focused NASDAQ-100-Technology Sector Index Fund (QTEC) is much better suited to predict the future growth of one of the most valuable brands in the world.
NASDAQ-100-Technology Sector Index Fund saw a 17.1% annual growth over the trailing 10-year period. If we apply QTEC’s historical growth to Amazon, the price of AMZN would increase by +1,451% to $1,940 in 2040. That seems a bit far-fetched, as that would mean Amazon’s stock would be trading over 10times above its July 2021 all-time high of $186 (accounting for the stock split).
Amazon stock forecast 2050
Let’s look at how AMZN could perform for those who are looking for an even longer time horizon for investing in Amazon stock. If we use the S&P 500 as the benchmark, Amazon stock would reach $3,023 and gain +1,627% by 2050.
If we use the tech sector-based QTEC instead, the price of Amazon shares would increase to a whopping $7,985, gaining over 4,462% in the process. It’s safe to assume that such a price level is impossible to reach under the current stock market dynamics, the value of fiat currencies, and general productivity levels.
However, things could change considerably in the coming decades, so no one can know for sure what the future holds.
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What’s next for AMZN? Amazon price prediction 2024-2025
The CoinCodex price prediction for AMZN is forecasting that the stock could reach a new all-time high above$260 in January 2025. Keep in mind that the prediction above is based on the state of technical indicators as of March 20, 2024,and could change considerably over time.
While Amazon had a relatively rough 2022, which saw the company follow the broader tech sector trend and reduce its workforce by 10,000 employees, the US giant could be in a particularly good spot to expand in the future, especially when accounting for the growing use of cloud computing solutions.
According to a 2023 report from Synergy, Amazon’s AWS sits comfortably in the first spot in the cloud market, controlling roughly 33% market share. Meanwhile, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud trail with 23% and 10%, respectively.
The bottom line: Amazon could be a good long-term investment, according to projections
Amazon’s over 25% historical yearly growth rate averaged over the last 20 years should serve as a good indication for the future. While the company probably won’t manage to sustain its historical rate of growth for much longer, Amazon still has a lot of potential, which is way we've featured it on our list of the best stocks to buy.
If you want to read more about long-term stock price forecasts, check how much higher Tesla could reach by 2040 and 2050. If you are interested in cryptocurrency forecasts, feel free to check our long-term prediction for Bitcoin, Cardano, Ethereum, and Solana.
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